The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Nate Silver
Sep 2012 · Penguin Random House Audio · Narrated by Mike Chamberlain
4.8star
10 reviewsreport
headphones
Audiobook
16 hr 21 min
Unabridged
family_home
Eligible
info
reportRatings and reviews aren’t verified Learn More
Want a 10 min sample? Listen anytime, even offline.
Add
About this audiobook
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • The groundbreaking exploration of probability and uncertainty that explains how to make better predictions in a world drowning in data, from the nation’s foremost political forecaster—updated with insights into the pandemic, journalism today, and polling
One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year
“Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review
Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability—as well as a healthy dose of humility.
With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
One of The Wall Street Journal’s Ten Best Works of Nonfiction of the Year
“Could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”—The New York Times Book Review
Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work in sports and politics, Nate Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how to seek truth from data. In The Signal and the Noise, Silver visits innovative forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He discovers that what the most accurate ones have in common is a superior command of probability—as well as a healthy dose of humility.
With everything from the global economy to the fight against disease hanging on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Ratings and reviews
4.8
10 reviews
Sumit Tiwari
- Flag inappropriate
February 25, 2024
Very nice
About the author
Nate Silver is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times bestselling author of The Signal and the Noise and On the Edge. He writes the Substack “Silver Bulletin.”
Mike Chamberlain is an actor and voiceover artist who has performed in numerous short and feature length films and on television and radio.
Mike Chamberlain is an actor and voiceover artist who has performed in numerous short and feature length films and on television and radio.
Rate this audiobook
Tell us what you think.
Listening information
Smartphones and tablets
Install the Google Play Books app for Android and iPad/iPhone. It syncs automatically with your account and allows you to read online or offline wherever you are.
Laptops and computers
You can read books purchased on Google Play using your computer's web browser.
