Economic Forecasting
Graham Elliott · Allan Timmermann
2016年4月 · Princeton University Press
4.0star
2則評論report
電子書
568
頁
family_home
符合資格
info
report評分和評論未經驗證 瞭解詳情
關於本電子書
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems
Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters.
This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance.
Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters.
This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance.
- Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods
- Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective
- Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts
- Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations
- Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility
- Features numerous empirical examples
- Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation
- Essential for practitioners and students alike
評分和評論
4.0
2則評論
關於作者
Graham Elliott is professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego. Allan Timmermann holds the Atkinson/Epstein Chair at the Rady School of Management at the University of California, San Diego, where he is also professor of finance and economics.
為這本電子書評分
歡迎提供意見。
閱讀資訊
智慧型手機與平板電腦
筆記型電腦和電腦
你可以使用電腦的網路瀏覽器聆聽你在 Google Play 購買的有聲書。
電子書閱讀器與其他裝置
如要在 Kobo 電子閱讀器這類電子書裝置上閱覽書籍，必須將檔案下載並傳輸到該裝置上。請按照說明中心的詳細操作說明，將檔案傳輸到支援的電子閱讀器上。
