Export-Import Bank: Status of GAO Recommendations on Risk Management, Exposure Forecasting, and Workload Issues

• assess whether it was using the best available data for adjusting loss estimates for long-term credit transactions to account for global economic risk. In November 2013, Ex-Im replaced a 1-year forecast of global economic conditions it used in its loss estimation model with a 5-year forecast.

• retain point-in-time data on credit performance to conduct analyses to compare the performance of newer and more seasoned business at comparable points. Ex-Im began retaining such data in fiscal year 2013.

• report to Congress on scenarios used for and results of stress tests on its portfolio. In September 2013, Ex-Im began including this information in quarterly reports to Congress on the bank's default rates.

• assess the sensitivity of its exposure forecast model to key assumptions and estimates and identify and report the range of forecasts these analyses produced. In response, Ex-Im created additional statistical models to validate its forecasts and provided a range of estimates.

Ex-Im also has begun to address two recommendations in GAO's 2013 reports concerning the bank's workload. In a March report, GAO found Ex-Im faced potential operational risks because administrative budgets and staff levels had not kept pace with growth in its portfolio and Ex-Im had not formally determined the level of business it could properly manage. In a May report, GAO found the Business Plan provided limited analysis of the adequacy of Ex-Im's resources and ability to meet congressional mandates for credit transactions supporting small business and renewable energy. Based in part on federal internal control standards, GAO recommended that Ex-Im develop benchmarks to monitor and manage workload levels and provide Congress with more information on resources associated with meeting the mandates. To help address the recommendations, Ex-Im hired a contractor to develop workload benchmarks and a workload modeling tool. As of June 2014, this effort was ongoing. As a result, the two recommendations remain open.

While Ex-Im has been responsive to GAO's recommendations, it is important to note that GAO has ongoing work examining other aspects of Ex-Im operations. Furthermore, managing a large export financing portfolio and its associated risks is challenging. Therefore, it will be important for Ex-Im to sustain the improvements it has made, effectively implement future audit recommendations, and carefully manage emerging risks.

Why GAO Did This Study: Ex-Im helps U.S. firms export goods and services by providing a range of financial products. The Export-Import Bank Reauthorization Act of 2012 increased the statutory ceiling on the agency's total exposure to $140 billion in 2014. As a condition of raising the exposure limit, the act required Ex-Im to prepare a report with a Business Plan and analyses of key operational elements. The act also mandated GAO to evaluate the effectiveness of Ex-Im's risk management and analyze its Business Plan. GAO reported on these issues in March and May 2013, respectively (see GAO-13-303 and GAO-13-620 ). In the reports, GAO made a total of eight recommendations—to which Ex-Im agreed.

This testimony is based on GAO's March and May 2013 reports. It discusses actions Ex-Im has taken in response to GAO recommendations on (1) estimating losses, managing financial risks, and forecasting exposure levels; and (2) managing and reporting on its workload. For the 2013 reports, GAO analyzed Ex-Im's financial data, policies and procedures, Business Plan, and processes for calculating program costs and loss reserves. GAO also interviewed Ex-Im officials and other entities involved in export financing.