Sovereign Default Risk Valuation: Implications of Debt Crises and Bond Restructurings

Insights gained from recent restructurings inspire the design of a valuation model for sovereign bonds. Using the distinction between hard and soft restructurings, the model draws parallels to the concepts of face value and market value recovery. An extension into credit default swap markets explains why bond and CDS spreads diverge during distress.

This survey of the sovereign bond market provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.