Macrofinancial Risk Analysis
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Dale Gray and Samuel Malone
Macrofinancial Risk Analysis provides a new and powerful framework with which policymakers and investors can analyze risk and vulnerability in economies, both emerging market and industrial. Using modern risk management and financial engineering techniques applied to the macroeconomy, an economic value can be placed on the risks posed by inter-linkages between sectors, the risk of default of different sectors on their outstanding debt obligations quantified, and the value ex-ante of guarantees to private sector entities by the government calculated. This book guides the reader through the basic macroeconomic and financial models necessary to understand the framework, the core analytical tools, and more advanced contributions that will be of interest to researchers. This unique synthesis of ideas from finance and macroeconomics offers several original contributions to the theory of financial crises, as well as a range of new policy options for governments interested in achieving a better tradeoff between economic growth and macro risk.
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Dr. SAMUEL W. MALONE is a professor of finance at the IESA, a business school in Caracas, and director of ProAlea, Inc., a risk and strategy consultancy based in Latin America. He holds a doctorate in economics from the University of Oxford, UK, and undergraduate degrees in mathematics and economics from Duke University, where he graduated Phi Beta Kappa with summa cum laude Latin honors. Elected to attend Oxford as a Rhodes Scholar representing the United States, Malone is also a four-time winner of the international Mathematical Contest in Modeling, an intensive problem-solving competition in which participants devise and write up solutions to real-world problems chosen by experts in government and industry. Author of several articles in applied mathematics and economics, he has consulted for the International Monetary Fund and the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, DC.
