Modeling Dynamic Economic Systems

Matthias Ruth · Bruce Hannon

2012년 12월 · Springer Science & Business Media

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The frontiers of physical science and technology commanded attention dur ing the last two centuries. In the next century lies the frontier of better un derstanding of the behavior of social and economic systems. Ruth and Hannon join many other pioneers exploring this new frontier. By building on the profession of system dynamics, Ruth and Hannon con tribute to movement away from purely mental models, which necessarily lack adequate precision, toward more insightful and disciplined computer simulation models. The STELLA software used in this book is one of several computer applications created to implement the concepts of system dynam ics, a discipline that has been developed over the last 40 years and now ex tends into many fields of activity. System dynamics is beginning, even in kindergarten through 12th grade education, to provide a rigorous founda tion for dealing with dynamic change in mathematics, physics, social stud ies, environment, history, and even literature. Education at every level will be changing from teaching isolated facts to allowing students to explore those systems within which facts, policies, and individual relationships are embedded to develop their ability to think in terms of dynamic systems. This book includes elementary instruction in system dynamics modeling and in the STELLA software. It covers a wide range of material from simple building blocks of systems to models and mathematics of considerable complexity. The material opens many avenues for further exploration, re finement, and simplification.

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Jay Wright Forrester was born on his family's cattle ranch in Nebraska on July 14, 1918. He studied electrical engineering at the University of Nebraska and graduate studies in electrical engineering at M.I.T. In 1940, he went to work at M.I.T.'s new Servomechanisms Laboratory, doing research in servomechanism theory and feedback control systems. During World War II, the laboratory did much of its work for the military by developing servomechanisms for controlling radar antennas and gun mounts. He worked for M.I.T. for about 70 years. His insights into both computing and organizations helped give rise to a field of computer modeling that examines the behavior of things as specific as a corporation and as broad as global growth. He wrote several books including Urban Dynamics, World Dynamics, Industrial Dynamics, and Principles of Systems. He died from complications of prostate cancer on November 16, 2016 at the age of 98.