Russ Markert
The complaints from other reviewers are valid if statistics bother you, but you can skip the details and read profitably for the conclusions of each chapter and the summaries Tetlock gives of the numbers. The principal takeaways include the claim that predicting the future is terribly difficult, and no one model excels at it, in the field of foreign affairs at any rate. The models Tetlock offers are those of Isaiah Berlin's hedgehog, the deeply burrowing, single-minded specialist, and the fox, the person of wide but more general knowledge and experience in foreign affairs. It turns out the fox does better, but not necessarily better than a coin flip. While recently reading a biography of Talleyrand, I was able to understand the source of his insights in the forty-plus years of his work in the foreign affairs of France between the reigns of Louis XVI and Louis Philippe. He was widely read and observed rather than merely theorized about European nations' interests, like Tetlock's ideal fox. The book provides evidence to be skeptical of predictions by the experts, especially those who specialize in a particular country. It also illuminates their rhetoric in explaining their mistakes. I recommend the book highly.
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