Surges

Β· International Monetary Fund
αžŸαŸ€αžœαž—αŸ…β€‹αž’αŸαž‘αž·αž…αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαž“αž·αž…
43
αž‘αŸ†αž–αŸαžš
αž€αžΆαžšαžœαžΆαž™αžαž˜αŸ’αž›αŸƒ αž“αž·αž„αž˜αžαž·αžœαžΆαž™αžαž˜αŸ’αž›αŸƒαž˜αž·αž“αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαžœαž”αžΆαž“αž•αŸ’αž‘αŸ€αž„αž•αŸ’αž‘αžΆαžαŸ‹αž‘αŸ αžŸαŸ’αžœαŸ‚αž„αž™αž›αŸ‹αž”αž“αŸ’αžαŸ‚αž˜

αž’αŸ†αž–αžΈαžŸαŸ€αžœαž—αŸ…β€‹αž’αŸαž‘αž·αž…αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαž“αž·αž€αž“αŸαŸ‡

This paper examines why surges in capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) occur, and what determines the allocation of capital across countries during such surge episodes. We use two different methodologies to identify surges in EMEs over 1980-2009, differentiating between those mainly caused by changes in the country's external liabilities (reflecting the investment decisions of foreigners), and those caused by changes in its assets (reflecting the decisions of residents). Global factors-including US interest rates and risk aversionΒ‘-are key to determining whether a surge will occur, but domestic factors such as the country's external financing needs (as implied by an intertemporal optimizing model of the current account) and structural characteristics also matter, which explains why not all EMEs experience surges. Conditional on a surge occurring, moreover, the magnitude of the capital inflow depends largely on domestic factors including the country's external financing needs, and the exchange rate regime. Finally, while similar factors explain asset- and liability-driven surges, the latter are more sensitive to global factors and contagion.

αžœαžΆαž™αžαž˜αŸ’αž›αŸƒαžŸαŸ€αžœαž—αŸ…β€‹αž’αŸαž‘αž·αž…αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαž“αž·αž€αž“αŸαŸ‡

αž”αŸ’αžšαžΆαž”αŸ‹αž™αžΎαž„αž’αŸ†αž–αžΈαž€αžΆαžšαž™αž›αŸ‹αžƒαžΎαž‰αžšαž”αžŸαŸ‹αž’αŸ’αž“αž€αŸ”

αž’αžΆαž“β€‹αž–αŸαžαŸŒαž˜αžΆαž“

αž‘αžΌαžšαžŸαž–αŸ’αž‘αž†αŸ’αž›αžΆαžαžœαŸƒ αž“αž·αž„β€‹αžαŸαž”αŸ’αž›αŸαž
αžŠαŸ†αž‘αžΎαž„αž€αž˜αŸ’αž˜αžœαž·αž’αžΈ Google Play Books αžŸαž˜αŸ’αžšαžΆαž”αŸ‹ Android αž“αž·αž„ iPad/iPhone αŸ” αžœαžΆβ€‹αž’αŸ’αžœαžΎαžŸαž˜αž€αžΆαž›αž€αž˜αŸ’αž˜β€‹αžŠαŸ„αž™αžŸαŸ’αžœαŸαž™αž”αŸ’αžšαžœαžαŸ’αžαž·αž‡αžΆαž˜αž½αž™β€‹αž‚αžŽαž“αžΈβ€‹αžšαž”αžŸαŸ‹αž’αŸ’αž“αž€β€‹ αž“αž·αž„β€‹αž’αž“αž»αž‰αŸ’αž‰αžΆαžαž±αŸ’αž™β€‹αž’αŸ’αž“αž€αž’αžΆαž“αž–αŸαž›β€‹αž˜αžΆαž“αž’αŸŠαžΈαž“αž’αžΊαžŽαž·αž αž¬αž‚αŸ’αž˜αžΆαž“β€‹αž’αŸŠαžΈαž“αž’αžΊαžŽαž·αžβ€‹αž“αŸ…αž‚αŸ’αžšαž”αŸ‹αž‘αžΈαž€αž“αŸ’αž›αŸ‚αž„αŸ”
αž€αž»αŸ†αž–αŸ’αž™αžΌαž‘αŸαžšβ€‹αž™αž½αžšαžŠαŸƒ αž“αž·αž„αž€αž»αŸ†αž–αŸ’αž™αžΌαž‘αŸαžš
αž’αŸ’αž“αž€αž’αžΆαž…αžŸαŸ’αžŠαžΆαž”αŸ‹αžŸαŸ€αžœαž—αŸ…αž‡αžΆαžŸαŸ†αž‘αŸαž„αžŠαŸ‚αž›αž”αžΆαž“αž‘αž·αž‰αž“αŸ…αž€αŸ’αž“αž»αž„ Google Play αžŠαŸ„αž™αž”αŸ’αžšαžΎαž€αž˜αŸ’αž˜αžœαž·αž’αžΈαžšαž»αž€αžšαž€αžαžΆαž˜αž’αŸŠαžΈαž“αž’αžΊαžŽαž·αžαž€αŸ’αž“αž»αž„αž€αž»αŸ†αž–αŸ’αž™αžΌαž‘αŸαžšαžšαž”αžŸαŸ‹αž’αŸ’αž“αž€αŸ”
eReaders αž“αž·αž„β€‹αž§αž”αž€αžšαžŽαŸβ€‹αž•αŸ’αžŸαŸαž„β€‹αž‘αŸ€αž
αžŠαžΎαž˜αŸ’αž”αžΈαž’αžΆαž“αž“αŸ…αž›αžΎβ€‹αž§αž”αž€αžšαžŽαŸ e-ink αžŠαžΌαž…αž‡αžΆβ€‹αž§αž”αž€αžšαžŽαŸαž’αžΆαž“β€‹αžŸαŸ€αžœαž—αŸ…αž’αŸαž‘αž·αž…αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαž“αž·αž€ Kobo αž’αŸ’αž“αž€αž“αžΉαž„αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαžœβ€‹αž‘αžΆαž‰αž™αž€β€‹αž―αž€αžŸαžΆαžš αž αžΎαž™β€‹αž•αŸ’αž‘αŸαžšαžœαžΆαž‘αŸ…β€‹αž§αž”αž€αžšαžŽαŸβ€‹αžšαž”αžŸαŸ‹αž’αŸ’αž“αž€αŸ” αžŸαžΌαž˜αž’αž“αž»αžœαžαŸ’αžαžαžΆαž˜β€‹αž€αžΆαžšαžŽαŸ‚αž“αžΆαŸ†αž›αž˜αŸ’αž’αž·αžαžšαž”αžŸαŸ‹αž˜αž‡αŸ’αžˆαž˜αžŽαŸ’αžŒαž›αž‡αŸ†αž“αž½αž™ αžŠαžΎαž˜αŸ’αž”αžΈαž•αŸ’αž‘αŸαžšαž―αž€αžŸαžΆαžšβ€‹αž‘αŸ…αž§αž”αž€αžšαžŽαŸαž’αžΆαž“αžŸαŸ€αžœαž—αŸ…β€‹αž’αŸαž‘αž·αž…αžαŸ’αžšαžΌαž“αž·αž€αžŠαŸ‚αž›αžŸαŸ’αž‚αžΆαž›αŸ‹αŸ”