TIME-SERIES WEATHER: FORECASTING AND PREDICTION WITH PYTHON
About this ebook
To begin, we started by exploring the dataset, which contained historical weather data. We examined the structure and content of the dataset to understand its variables, such as temperature, humidity, wind speed, and weather conditions. Understanding the dataset is crucial for effective analysis and modeling.
Next, we visualized the distributions of different features. By creating histograms, box plots, and density plots, we gained insights into the range, central tendency, and variability of the variables. These visualizations allowed us to identify any outliers, skewed distributions, or patterns within the data.
Moving on, we explored the dataset's temporal aspects by analyzing year-wise and month-wise distributions. This involved aggregating the data based on years and months and visualizing the trends over time. By examining these patterns, we could observe any long-term or seasonal variations in the weather variables.
After gaining a comprehensive understanding of the dataset, we proceeded to apply ARIMA regression for temperature forecasting. ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) is a powerful technique for time-series analysis. By fitting an ARIMA model to the temperature data, we were able to make predictions and assess the model's accuracy in capturing the underlying patterns.
In addition to temperature forecasting, we aimed to predict weather conditions using machine learning models. We employed various classification algorithms such as Logistic Regression, Decision Trees, Random Forests, Support Vector Machines (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Adaboost, Gradient Boosting, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting (LGBM), and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP). These models were trained on the historical weather data, with weather conditions as the target variable.
To evaluate the performance of the machine learning models, we utilized several metrics: accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score. Accuracy measures the overall correctness of the predictions, while precision quantifies the proportion of true positive predictions out of all positive predictions. Recall, also known as sensitivity, measures the ability to identify true positives, and F1 score combines precision and recall into a single metric.
Throughout the process, we emphasized the importance of data preprocessing, including handling missing values, scaling features, and splitting the dataset into training and testing sets. Preprocessing ensures the data is in a suitable format for analysis and modeling, and it helps prevent biases or inconsistencies in the results.
By following this step-by-step approach, we were able to gain insights into the dataset, visualize feature distributions, analyze temporal patterns, forecast temperature using ARIMA regression, and predict weather conditions using machine learning models. The evaluation metrics provided a comprehensive assessment of the models' performance in capturing the weather conditions accurately.
In conclusion, this project demonstrated the power of Python in time-series weather forecasting and prediction. Through data exploration, visualization, regression analysis, and machine learning modeling, we obtained valuable insights and accurate predictions regarding temperature and weather conditions. This knowledge can be applied in various domains such as agriculture, transportation, and urban planning, enabling better decision-making based on weather forecasts.
Ratings and reviews
- Flag inappropriate
- Flag inappropriate
About the author
Vivian Siahaan is a fast-learner who likes to do new things. She was born, raised in Hinalang Bagasan, Balige, on the banks of Lake Toba, and completed high school education from SMAN 1 Balige. She started herself learning Java, Android, JavaScript, CSS, C ++, Python, R, Visual Basic, Visual C #, MATLAB, Mathematica, PHP, JSP, MySQL, SQL Server, Oracle, Access, and other programming languages. She studied programming from scratch, starting with the most basic syntax and logic, by building several simple and applicable GUI applications. Animation and games are fields of programming that are interests that she always wants to develop. Besides studying mathematical logic and programming, the author also has the pleasure of reading novels. Vivian Siahaan has written dozens of ebooks that have been published on Sparta Publisher: Data Structure with Java; Java Programming: Cookbook; C ++ Programming: Cookbook; C Programming For High Schools / Vocational Schools and Students; Java Programming for SMA / SMK; Java Tutorial: GUI, Graphics and Animation; Visual Basic Programming: From A to Z; Java Programming for Animation and Games; C # Programming for SMA / SMK and Students; MATLAB For Students and Researchers; Graphics in JavaScript: Quick Learning Series; JavaScript Image Processing Methods: From A to Z; Java GUI Case Study: AWT & Swing; Basic CSS and JavaScript; PHP / MySQL Programming: Cookbook; Visual Basic: Cookbook; C ++ Programming for High Schools / Vocational Schools and Students; Concepts and Practices of C ++; PHP / MySQL For Students; C # Programming: From A to Z; Visual Basic for SMA / SMK and Students; C # .NET and SQL Server for High School / Vocational School and Students. At the ANDI Yogyakarta publisher, Vivian Siahaan also wrote a number of books including: Python Programming Theory and Practice; Python GUI Programming; Python GUI and Database; Build From Zero School Database Management System In Python / MySQL; Database Management System in Python / MySQL; Python / MySQL For Management Systems of Criminal Track Record Database; Java / MySQL For Management Systems of Criminal Track Records Database; Database and Cryptography Using Java / MySQL; Build From Zero School Database Management System With Java / MySQL.
Rismon Hasiholan Sianipar was born in Pematang Siantar, in 1994. After graduating from SMAN 3 Pematang Siantar 3, the writer traveled to the city of Jogjakarta. In 1998 and 2001 the author completed his Bachelor of Engineering (S.T) and Master of Engineering (M.T) education in the Electrical Engineering of Gadjah Mada University, under the guidance of Prof. Dr. Adhi Soesanto and Prof. Dr. Thomas Sri Widodo, focusing on research on non-stationary signals by analyzing their energy using time-frequency maps. Because of its non-stationary nature, the distribution of signal energy becomes very dynamic on a time-frequency map. By mapping the distribution of energy in the time-frequency field using discrete wavelet transformations, one can design non-linear filters so that they can analyze the pattern of the data contained in it. In 2003, the author received a Monbukagakusho scholarship from the Japanese Government. In 2005 and 2008, he completed his Master of Engineering (M.Eng) and Doctor of Engineering (Dr.Eng) education at Yamaguchi University, under the guidance of Prof. Dr. Hidetoshi Miike. Both the master's thesis and his doctoral thesis, R.H. Sianipar combines SR-FHN (Stochastic Resonance Fitzhugh-Nagumo) filter strength with cryptosystem ECC (elliptic curve cryptography) 4096-bit both to suppress noise in digital images and digital video and maintain its authenticity. The results of this study have been documented in international scientific journals and officially patented in Japan. One of the patents was published in Japan with a registration number 2008-009549. He is active in collaborating with several universities and research institutions in Japan, particularly in the fields of cryptography, cryptanalysis and audio / image / video digital forensics. R.H. Sianipar also has experience in conducting code-breaking methods (cryptanalysis) on a number of intelligence data that are the object of research studies in Japan. R.H. Sianipar has a number of Japanese patents, and has written a number of national / international scientific articles, and dozens of national books. R.H. Sianipar has also participated in a number of workshops related to cryptography, cryptanalysis, digital watermarking, and digital forensics. In a number of workshops, R.H. Sianipar helps Prof. Hidetoshi Miike to create applications related to digital image / video processing, steganography, cryptography, watermarking, non-linear screening, intelligent descriptor-based computer vision, and others, which are used as training materials. Field of interest in the study of R.H. Sianipar is multimedia security, signal processing / digital image / video, cryptography, digital communication, digital forensics, and data compression / coding. Until now, R.H. Sianipar continues to develop applications related to analysis of signal, image, and digital video, both for research purposes and for commercial purposes based on the Python programming language, MATLAB, C ++, C, VB.NET, C # .NET, R, and Java.
